Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium index turns red as US January CPI looms


Key Takeaways

Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) ’s Coinbase premium index is negative, indicating selling pressure from US investors.
US Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) ETFs saw negative flows for two days, but BlackRock’s IBIT fund logged $59 million in inflows.

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Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) ’s Coinbase premium index flips negative, as US traders brace for this morning’s January CPI release, according to Coinglass data.

The most recent negative reading on the index occurred on February 3 when Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) ’s value bottomed out at $92,000 following President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which stoked inflation fears.

The premium index tracks the spread between Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) ’s dollar-denominated price on Coinbase and the tether-denominated price on Binance. When it is negative, Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) is trading at a higher rate on Binance than on Coinbase, indicating selling pressure from US retail investors since Coinbase serves as one of their go-to crypto platforms.

Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) briefly dipped below $95,000 on Tuesday afternoon before recovering. Overnight, prices fluctuated between $95,000 and $96,000. At press time, BTC was trading around $95,800, down 2% over the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko data.

Offshore traders also led the price recovery from overnight lows near $94,900 to $96,000 according to the premium indicator.

The negative Coinbase premium is consistent with the trend of outflows from US spot Bitcoin ( $110,171.00 ) ETFs, which have now registered two days of net withdrawals, according to Farside Investors data.

Over the first two trading days of the week, approximately $243 million was withdrawn from these funds. Despite the negative performance, BlackRock’s IBIT is still on its buying spree, netting around $59 million so far this week.

Inflation data are in the spotlight.

Economists anticipate January’s CPI to show a headline inflation rate of 2.9%, matching December’s annual increase. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.1% year-over-year, potentially marking the lowest level since April 2021.

The Federal Reserve maintained the fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its January 2025 meeting, following three consecutive rate cuts in 2024.

According to Chair Powell, the Fed is not in a hurry to lower interest rates and has paused to see further progress on inflation. The Fed seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at a rate of 2% over the long run.

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